Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.
Identifieur interne : 001140 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001139; suivant : 001141Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.
Auteurs : Adam H. Sparks [Philippines] ; Gregory A. Forbes ; Robert J. Hijmans ; Karen A. GarrettSource :
- Global change biology [ 1365-2486 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- microbiologie : Maladies des plantes.
- méthodes : Prévision.
- Cartographie géographique, Changement climatique, Géographie, Humidité, Modèles théoriques, Phytophthora infestans, Simulation numérique, Solanum tuberosum, Température.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- methods : Forecasting.
- microbiology : Plant Diseases.
- Climate Change, Computer Simulation, Geographic Mapping, Geography, Humidity, Models, Theoretical, Phytophthora infestans, Solanum tuberosum, Temperature.
Abstract
Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12587
PubMed: 24687916
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.</title><author><name sortKey="Sparks, Adam H" sort="Sparks, Adam H" uniqKey="Sparks A" first="Adam H" last="Sparks">Adam H. Sparks</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Laguna, 4031, Philippines.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Philippines</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Laguna, 4031</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>4031</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Forbes, Gregory A" sort="Forbes, Gregory A" uniqKey="Forbes G" first="Gregory A" last="Forbes">Gregory A. Forbes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hijmans, Robert J" sort="Hijmans, Robert J" uniqKey="Hijmans R" first="Robert J" last="Hijmans">Robert J. Hijmans</name></author><author><name sortKey="Garrett, Karen A" sort="Garrett, Karen A" uniqKey="Garrett K" first="Karen A" last="Garrett">Karen A. Garrett</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:24687916</idno><idno type="pmid">24687916</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/gcb.12587</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">001097</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001097</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001097</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">001097</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001097</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.</title><author><name sortKey="Sparks, Adam H" sort="Sparks, Adam H" uniqKey="Sparks A" first="Adam H" last="Sparks">Adam H. Sparks</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Laguna, 4031, Philippines.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Philippines</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Laguna, 4031</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>4031</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Forbes, Gregory A" sort="Forbes, Gregory A" uniqKey="Forbes G" first="Gregory A" last="Forbes">Gregory A. Forbes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hijmans, Robert J" sort="Hijmans, Robert J" uniqKey="Hijmans R" first="Robert J" last="Hijmans">Robert J. Hijmans</name></author><author><name sortKey="Garrett, Karen A" sort="Garrett, Karen A" uniqKey="Garrett K" first="Karen A" last="Garrett">Karen A. Garrett</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global change biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate Change (MeSH)</term><term>Computer Simulation (MeSH)</term><term>Forecasting (methods)</term><term>Geographic Mapping (MeSH)</term><term>Geography (MeSH)</term><term>Humidity (MeSH)</term><term>Models, Theoretical (MeSH)</term><term>Phytophthora infestans (MeSH)</term><term>Plant Diseases (microbiology)</term><term>Solanum tuberosum (MeSH)</term><term>Temperature (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Cartographie géographique (MeSH)</term><term>Changement climatique (MeSH)</term><term>Géographie (MeSH)</term><term>Humidité (MeSH)</term><term>Maladies des plantes (microbiologie)</term><term>Modèles théoriques (MeSH)</term><term>Phytophthora infestans (MeSH)</term><term>Prévision (méthodes)</term><term>Simulation numérique (MeSH)</term><term>Solanum tuberosum (MeSH)</term><term>Température (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Forecasting</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="microbiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Maladies des plantes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="microbiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Plant Diseases</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="méthodes" xml:lang="fr"><term>Prévision</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate Change</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Geographic Mapping</term><term>Geography</term><term>Humidity</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Phytophthora infestans</term><term>Solanum tuberosum</term><term>Temperature</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Cartographie géographique</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Géographie</term><term>Humidité</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Phytophthora infestans</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Solanum tuberosum</term><term>Température</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia. </div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">24687916</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>22</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2014</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>29</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2486</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>20</Volume><Issue>12</Issue><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Dec</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global change biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Chang Biol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>3621-31</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/gcb.12587</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia. </AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sparks</LastName><ForeName>Adam H</ForeName><Initials>AH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Laguna, 4031, Philippines.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Forbes</LastName><ForeName>Gregory A</ForeName><Initials>GA</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hijmans</LastName><ForeName>Robert J</ForeName><Initials>RJ</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Garrett</LastName><ForeName>Karen A</ForeName><Initials>KA</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2014</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>30</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Chang Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9888746</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1354-1013</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057231" MajorTopicYN="Y">Climate Change</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" MajorTopicYN="Y">methods</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D062305" MajorTopicYN="N">Geographic Mapping</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005843" MajorTopicYN="N">Geography</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006813" MajorTopicYN="N">Humidity</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055750" MajorTopicYN="Y">Phytophthora infestans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010935" MajorTopicYN="N">Plant Diseases</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000382" MajorTopicYN="Y">microbiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011198" MajorTopicYN="Y">Solanum tuberosum</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013696" MajorTopicYN="N">Temperature</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Phytophthora infestans</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">climate change</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">food security</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">plant disease management</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">plant pathology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">potato late blight</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2013</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2014</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2014</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2014</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2015</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24687916</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/gcb.12587</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Philippines</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Forbes, Gregory A" sort="Forbes, Gregory A" uniqKey="Forbes G" first="Gregory A" last="Forbes">Gregory A. Forbes</name><name sortKey="Garrett, Karen A" sort="Garrett, Karen A" uniqKey="Garrett K" first="Karen A" last="Garrett">Karen A. Garrett</name><name sortKey="Hijmans, Robert J" sort="Hijmans, Robert J" uniqKey="Hijmans R" first="Robert J" last="Hijmans">Robert J. Hijmans</name></noCountry><country name="Philippines"><noRegion><name sortKey="Sparks, Adam H" sort="Sparks, Adam H" uniqKey="Sparks A" first="Adam H" last="Sparks">Adam H. Sparks</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Bois/explor/PhytophthoraV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001140 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 001140 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Bois
|area= PhytophthoraV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:24687916
|texte= Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:24687916" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PhytophthoraV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.38. |  |